CONCACAF Nations League | Semi-Finals

Mar 20, 2025 at 11pm UK

Masafi Stadium

USA
0 - 1
Panama

Richards (72'), Richards (72'), Pulisic (90'), Pulisic (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Waterman Ruiz (90+4', 90+4')
Waterman Ruiz (90+6'), Waterman Ruiz (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between USA and Panama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: USA 3-0 Costa Rica
Thursday, January 23 at 12am in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	8	9
2	Panama	3	1	6
3	USA	3	0	3
4	Bolivia	3	-9	0

Panama

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Chile 6-1 Panama
Saturday, February 8 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	8	9
2	Panama	3	1	6
3	USA	3	0	3
4	Bolivia	3	-9	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Panama had a probability of 17.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.67%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result
USA	Draw	Panama
60.03% ( 0.64)	22.46% ( -0.34)	17.51% ( -0.3)

Both teams to score 49.05% (

0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.94% (

0.92)

49.06% (

-0.92)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.86% (

0.82)

71.14% (

-0.82)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.06% (

0.54)

15.94% (

-0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.79% (

0.97)

45.21% (

-0.97)

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.36% (

0.19)

41.64% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.88% (

0.16)

78.13% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

USA 60.03%

Panama 17.51%

Draw 22.45%

USA	Draw	Panama
1-0 @ 12.19% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 11.19% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 6% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.09% Total : 60.03%	1-1 @ 10.67% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.85% Total : 22.45%	0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.85% Total : 17.51%