Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guatemala win with a probability of 59.09%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Martinique had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guatemala win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Martinique win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guatemala would win this match.