Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Martinique win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Curacao had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Martinique win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Curacao win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Martinique in this match.