Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 52.95%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Martinique had a probability of 22.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Martinique win it was 1-0 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.