Canada national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | Third-Place Playoff
Mar 23, 2025 at 10pm UK
Masafi Stadium
USA national football team

Canada
2 - 1
USA

Oluwaseyi (27'), David (59')
Bombito (43'), Kone (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Agyemang (35')
Scally (30'), Reyna (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between Canada and USA, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Canada

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Canada 0-2 Mexico
Friday, March 21 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

USA

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 0-1 Panama
Thursday, March 20 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for Canada had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Canada win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
CanadaDrawUSA
33.6%24.95%41.45%
Both teams to score 57.38%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.09%45.92%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.78%68.22%
Canada Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.67%26.33%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.53%61.47%
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.89%22.11%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.52%55.48%
Score Analysis
    Canada 33.6%
    USA 41.45%
    Draw 24.95%
CanadaDrawUSA
2-1 @ 7.82%
1-0 @ 7.77%
2-0 @ 5.18%
3-1 @ 3.48%
3-2 @ 2.63%
3-0 @ 2.31%
4-1 @ 1.16%
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 33.6%
1-1 @ 11.72%
2-2 @ 5.9%
0-0 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.95%
1-2 @ 8.85%
0-1 @ 8.79%
0-2 @ 6.63%
1-3 @ 4.45%
0-3 @ 3.33%
2-3 @ 2.97%
1-4 @ 1.68%
0-4 @ 1.26%
2-4 @ 1.12%
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 41.45%

Head to Head
Sep 7, 2024 9pm
Friendlies 1
USA
1-2
Canada
De la Torre (66')
Balogun (53')
Shaffelburg (17'), David (58')
Larin (63')
> Preview
Jul 10, 2023 12.30am
Quarter-Finals
USA
2-2
Canada
(Aggregate 2-2 | USA win 3-2 on penalties)
Vazquez (88'), Kennedy (114' og.)
Cowell (96'), Miazga (120+1')
Vitoria (90+3' pen.), Shaffelburg (109')
Cavallini (42'), McGraw (56'), Miller (57'), Osorio (62')
> Preview
Jun 19, 2023 1.30am
Final
Canada
0-2
USA

Kennedy (15'), Laryea (45+4')
Richards (12'), Balogun (34')
Cardoso (80'), Turner (81')
> Preview
Jan 30, 2022 8.05pm
Third Round
Canada
2-0
USA
Larin (7'), Adekugbe (90+5')
Vitoria (31'), Buchanan (88')
> Preview
Sep 6, 2021 1am
Third Round
USA
1-1
Canada
Aaronson (55')
Larin (62')
> Preview