Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Wuhan Three Towns had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Wuhan Three Towns win was 2-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.