Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yunnan Yukun win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Wuhan Three Towns had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yunnan Yukun win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-0 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.