Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 1-0 (10.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.