Papering over the cracks? The clinical truth behind Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea start

Liam Rosenior’s brief spell as Chelsea manager hit its first setback on Tuesday as the Blues suffered a tame EFL Cup semi-final defeat to cross-town rivals Arsenal, losing 1-0 at the Emirates Stadium in the second leg.

The West London club’s loss followed a five-match winning streak, which included a trio of derby victories over Brentford, Crystal Palace and West Ham United, as well as a pair of Champions League triumphs against Pafos and Napoli, the latter ending the Partenopei’s lengthy 13-month unbeaten run at the Maradona.

That success in Naples marked the two-time European champions’ first away victory in four years, since a 2-1 win over Red Bull Salzburg, having lost on their travels to Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Atalanta, while drawing at Qarabag FK.

In less than a month, Rosenior has effectively transformed the mood at Stamford Bridge, with supporters having celebrated only two wins in 11 matches prior to the manager’s bow against Charlton on January 10.

However, has the supposed improvement been a fair reflection of Rosenior’s Chelsea, or have they been somewhat fortunate during this period?

Here, Sports Mole looks at the numbers to validate or undermine the Blues’ ostensible resurgence.

Chelsea under Rosenior: The Blues’ favourable stats and results

While the continental highlight was defeating Napoli last month, the domestic high point of Rosenior’s short spell in the capital came in last weekend’s 3-2 comeback victory against West Ham at Stamford Bridge.

Trailing 2-0 at the break after a wretched first-half display, the Blues struck three times after the interval to overturn such a deficit for the first time in their Premier League history.

It also marked the third consecutive game across all competitions in which the Blues netted three goals, following wins over Crystal Palace and Napoli, and coming on the back of victories over Brentford and Pafos in the league and in Europe.

Notably, it was the first time Chelsea had scored so many across so many successive games since December 2024, when they defeated Aston Villa (3-0), Southampton (5-1), Tottenham Hotspur (4-3) and Astana (3-1).

Key to that run was the Blues scoring from low-probability efforts, mostly through Joao Pedro’s ability to convert half-chances thanks to his admirable ball-striking, with the capital club outperforming their Expected Goals (xG) against Brentford (1.59), Palace (2.20) and Napoli (2.02).

Only Arsenal have inflicted defeat on the new Chelsea head coach, but have the Blues really been that good?

Chelsea under Rosenior: Resurgent or false dawn?

Apart from their 5-1 win over Charlton Athletic in the FA Cup, the Blues have yet to stitch together a convincing 90-minute performance.

Rosenior’s team were undeniably fortunate to beat Brentford 2-0, despite losing the total shots count 15-6 in the West London derby and creating fewer clear-cut chances (two) than the Bees (three), who also outdid them for shots on target (5-2).

Their 3-1 victory over Palace was far from a fair reflection of a match in which Oliver Glasner’s out-of-form side outshot the Blues 13-10 and fashioned a staggering six big chances to Chelsea’s five, although the visitors’ xG (2.20) did trump Palace’s (1.77).

Although the strong second-half responses against Napoli and West Ham showcased Rosenior’s capacity to identify and fix problems, constantly having to overturn the damage done in the first half of games is not a sustainable long-term approach.

Regularly bailed out by Joao Pedro’s ongoing purple patch, the Brazilian has found the back of the net five times in his last six appearances — as many as he managed in 24 matches before January’s strike against the Bees.

Benefiting from the forward’s admirable shooting ability, Joao Pedro’s knack for turning low-percentage efforts into top-quality goals was already evident during the Blues’ run to the Club World Cup title, particularly against his former club Fluminense.

That quality has been especially clear in his finish against Brentford and both strikes versus Napoli at the Maradona. Considering Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) — a metric that focuses primarily on shots on target, with regard to shot placement, and differs from xG, which assesses chance quality — Joao Pedro’s aforementioned efforts were notable.

The Brazilian’s chance against Brentford carried an xG value of 0.08, but the forward fired it close to the roof of the net, resulting in an xGOT value of 0.36, according to FotMob.

That finishing ability was just as evident in both goals in the Blues’ victory in Naples: his first had an xG value of 0.04, but his left-footed effort into the top-right corner produced an xGOT value of 0.33, while his second carried an xG value of 0.16 and an xGOT value of 0.81, underlining his knack for finishing off low-probability efforts when he is in form.

However, such top-quality form from one player is far from sustainable, as evidenced by the Brazilian’s extended dip in goalscoring before this recent upswing.

With Rosenior’s Chelsea scoring two from six attempts versus Brentford, three from 10 shots against Palace, three from 11 efforts against Antonio Conte’s men, and their goals against West Ham coming from 14 attempts, the West Londoners making the most of relatively little has undoubtedly stood out.

These underwhelming overall performances can be mitigated by Enzo Maresca’s replacement having had little time on the training ground, with games played every three days.

Ultimately, the Arsenal defeat serves as a timely reminder that while Rosenior has successfully weaponised Joao Pedro’s clinical form, the collective performance level must rise to bridge the gap to Europe’s elite.

If the Blues cannot find a way to dominate matches more convincingly, this early optimism may well be remembered as a mere statistical anomaly — a fleeting purple patch or a well-timed sequence of fortune.