Charlotte FC have a chance to extend their home winning streak to three straight games when they host Atlanta United on Sunday.
In their previous meeting with the Five Stripes, the Crown were minutes away from picking up their first point in Major League Soccer before a 96th-minute strike from Jake Mulraney sent them to a 2-1 defeat.
Match preview
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Last Saturday served as a reality check for Miguel Angel Ramirez and his young side, who remained pointless on the road in their inaugural campaign, losing 2-0 to the Philadelphia Union.
While Ramirez was pleased with the fight that his team showed after falling behind in the fourth minute of that game, his players failed to create much in the final third, firing only one effort on target.
Competing and keeping matches tight will be among their main objectives throughout this campaign, as several players are featuring professionally for the first time.
Mint City have played well in stretches, although they have not had a lot of bounces go their way, including the winning goal conceded versus the Five Stripes when the Atlanta shot caromed off Christian Makoun before finding the back of the net.
Ramirez has slowly but surely seen his players do a better job at finding the open spaces moving forward, with sharper first passes out of the back, allowing them to counter more effectively.
When you look at the calibre of teams that Charlotte have faced thus far, including the past two Supporters' Shield winners, they have to be satisfied to be contending for a playoff berth after six games.
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Atlanta United head into this encounter on a three-match unbeaten run, after winning their first road fixture of the season, 1-0 over DC United.
A year ago, the Five Stripes gave away their share of points late in games, but it has been a different story for Gonzalo Pineda's men in 2022, with a last gasp strike in three straight encounters, helping them gain seven points in the process.
Last Saturday might have been their most robust defensive effort of the campaign, allowing only two shots on target and collecting their first clean sheet since a 0-0 draw against the New York Red Bulls on November 3 of last year.
Although there seems to be a disconnect between the midfield and the attack right now, Atlanta possess a ton of quality, with many players that like to dribble instead of making runs off the ball.
Pineda has admitted that their ball movement needs work and is calling upon his scoring threats to make more runs into the box, while challenging opposing backlines.
Finding balance with all 11 players who are on the field will be key for the Five Stripes in the weeks to come, as they get set to play three of their next four games away from home.
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Team News
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Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina has kept his side in several games this year, but he made an uncharacteristic giveaway in their previous encounter, passing the ball straight to Union midfielder Daniel Gazdag, who buried it into the open net.
Vinicius Mello remains out after undergoing left foot surgery, and Chris Hegardt is likely to miss this fixture with a left knee injury.
Recently the club announced the signing of Quinn McNeill for the remainder of the year, with options for the following three seasons after that before loaning him to their USL affiliate team, Charlotte Independence, for the rest of the 2022 campaign.
Karol Swiderski leads the way for them in terms of goals with four, while Ben Bender is tied for second in the league in assists (three) alongside Diego Fagundez and Frankie Amaya and one behind Raheem Edwards.
Marcelino Moreno tallied his first of the season for Atlanta in their victory over The Black-and-Red, with Brooks Lennon picking up his first assist this year, moving him one behind Moreno and Josef Martinez for the team lead.
The injury concerns continued to pile on for The Five Stripes last Saturday as Osvaldo Alonso suffered a torn ACL in his right knee, and Matheus Rossetto is out three to four weeks with a hamstring issue.
Martinez, their leading goalscorer, could be a game-time decision after expressing discomfort in his right knee, and Dom Dwyer was unavailable last week due to a red card suspension.
We saw three new players in the starting 11 when this team began their encounter in DC as George Campbell, Thiago Almada and Mulraney drew into the lineup, replacing Ronald Hernandez, Miles Robinson and Tyler Wolff.
Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Afful, Fuchs, Walkes, Corujo, Lindsey; Bender, Ruiz, Makoun, Alcivar; Swiderski
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Gutman, M. Robinson, Franco, Lennon; Hyndman, Rossetto; Almada, Moreno, Sosa; Wolff
We say: Charlotte FC 2-1 Atlanta United
In the early stages of this campaign, Charlotte have shown us how much of an advantage it can be to play at home, and given the question marks surrounding the Five Stripes' top attacking players, look for this expansion side to frustrate Atlanta in the final third while catching them on the break.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Charlotte FC win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Charlotte FC would win this match.
