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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Burnley |
41.24% ( 0.12) | 27.08% ( 0.03) | 31.68% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 49.86% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.67% ( -0.16) | 55.33% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.46% ( -0.13) | 76.54% ( 0.13) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.59% ( -0.01) | 26.41% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.43% ( -0.01) | 61.57% ( 0.01) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.75% ( -0.19) | 32.25% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.25% ( -0.21) | 68.75% ( 0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Burnley |
1-0 @ 11.34% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.79% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 41.24% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.07% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.71% Total : 31.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 38 |
2 | Burnley | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 35 |
4 | Sunderland | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 33 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 30 |
6 | Watford | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 30 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 28 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
10 | Millwall | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 25 |
11 | Bristol City | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 23 |
14 | Stoke CityStoke | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 17 |
22 | Hull City | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
24 | Portsmouth | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 13 |
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