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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Preston North End win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Preston North End win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Preston North End would win this match.
Result | ||
Preston North End | Draw | Birmingham City |
42.53% ( 3.68) | 27.09% ( -0.37) | 30.38% ( -3.31) |
Both teams to score 49.31% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.2% ( 0.56) | 55.79% ( -0.56) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.08% ( 0.45) | 76.92% ( -0.45) |
Preston North End Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.05% ( 2.27) | 25.94% ( -2.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.05% ( 2.97) | 60.95% ( -2.97) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.58% ( -2.02) | 33.42% ( 2.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.95% ( -2.28) | 70.05% ( 2.28) |
Score Analysis |
Preston North End | Draw | Birmingham City |
1-0 @ 11.69% ( 0.48) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.8) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( 0.43) 3-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.56) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.22) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.25) Other @ 2.21% Total : 42.52% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 8.67% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.09% | 0-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.76) 1-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.49) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.74) 1-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.34) 0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.39) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.44% Total : 30.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
P | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 45 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 80 | 41 | 39 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 44 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 88 | 56 | 32 | 90 |
4 | Southampton | 45 | 25 | 9 | 11 | 85 | 62 | 23 | 84 |
5 | Norwich CityNorwich | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 79 | 63 | 16 | 73 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 67 | 47 | 20 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 59 | 9 | 70 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 45 | 19 | 9 | 17 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 66 |
9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 64 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Bristol City | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 62 |
12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 45 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 62 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 59 | 64 | -5 | 57 |
14 | Watford | 45 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 56 |
15 | Sunderland | 45 | 16 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 56 |
16 | Millwall | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 56 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 53 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 53 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 50 |
20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 45 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 50 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 45 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 48 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 47 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 45 | 9 | 18 | 18 | 48 | 75 | -27 | 45 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 45 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 87 | -55 | 24 |
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