Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 45.4%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 28.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.31%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.