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Champions League

Marseille
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 4, 2022 at 6pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Sporting Lisbon

Marseille
4 - 1
Sporting Lisbon

Sanchez (13'), Harit (16'), Balerdi (28'), Mbemba (84')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Trincao (1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Marseille and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Angers 0-3 Marseille
Friday, September 30 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-1 Gil Vicente
Friday, September 30 at 7pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.

Result
MarseilleDrawSporting Lisbon
30.59% (0.052 0.05)23.04% (-0.02 -0.02)46.37% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 62.89% (0.109 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.87% (0.129 0.13)38.13% (-0.125 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.6% (0.136 0.14)60.4% (-0.133 -0.13)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.62% (0.096000000000004 0.1)24.38% (-0.092000000000002 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.21% (0.132 0.13)58.79% (-0.129 -0.13)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.17% (0.040000000000006 0.04)16.83% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.18% (0.07 0.07)46.82% (-0.067 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 30.59%
    Sporting Lisbon 46.37%
    Draw 23.04%
MarseilleDrawSporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 7.28% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-0 @ 5.79% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
2-0 @ 4.09% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 3.43% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.05% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.92% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.21% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.08% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 30.59%
1-1 @ 10.32% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.49% (0.012 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.1% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.81% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 23.04%
1-2 @ 9.2% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.31% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.52% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.46% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 3.87% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.86% (0.012 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.43% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.72% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.72% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 4.28%
Total : 46.37%

How you voted: Marseille vs Sporting Lisbon

Marseille
34.6%
Draw
15.2%
Sporting Lisbon
50.1%
355
rhs 2.0


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