Champions League Gameweek 5
Nov 24, 2026 8.00pm
Etihad Stadium

Manchester City vs Napoli - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 8, 2026 8.00pm
Porto 0 - 2 Man City

Napoli

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 8.00pm
Napoli 0 - 1 Arsenal

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Manchester City win with a probability of 54.65%. A win for Napoli has a probability of 23.52% and a draw has a probability of 21.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Napoli win is 1-2 (5.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.73%).

Result

Manchester City 54.65%
Draw 21.83%
Napoli 23.52%

Both Teams to Score: 

57.78%

Goals

Over 1.5 80.95%
Under 1.5 19.05%
Over 2.5 60.03%
Under 2.5 39.97%
Over 3.5 38.03%
Under 3.5 61.97%
Over 4.5 24.38%
Under 4.5 75.62%

First Half Winner

Manchester City 40.95%
Draw 36.26%
Napoli 22.79%

Team To Score First

Manchester City 56.72%
No Goal 4.88%
Napoli 38.4%

Corners

Over 8 56.67%
Equal 8 10.64%
Under 8 32.69%
Over 9 45.9%
Equal 9 10.77%
Under 9 43.33%
Over 10.5 35.82%
Under 10.5 64.18%

Manchester City Goals

Over 1.5 55.4%
Under 1.5 44.6%
Over 2.5 30.12%
Under 2.5 69.88%
Over 3.5 13.54%
Under 3.5 86.46%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5 59.58%
Under 0.5 40.42%
Over 1.5 29.18%
Under 1.5 70.82%
Over 2.5 10.69%
Under 2.5 89.31%
Over 3.5 3.56%
Under 3.5 96.44%

Score analysis

Manchester City 54.65%
Draw 21.83%
Napoli 23.52%
Manchester City
2-1 @ 9.37%
1-0 @ 8.76%
2-0 @ 8.06%
3-1 @ 5.89%
3-0 @ 5.44%
3-2 @ 3.85%
Other @ 13.28%
Total : 54.65%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.73%
2-2 @ 5.56%
0-0 @ 4.88%
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 21.83%
Napoli
1-2 @ 5.95%
0-1 @ 5.41%
0-2 @ 3.13%
2-3 @ 2.29%
1-3 @ 2.2%
0-3 @ 1.24%
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 23.52%

Head to Head

Champions League Gameweek 1
Sep 18, 2025 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Erling Haaland 56' goal
  • Jérémy Doku 65' goal
  • redcard Giovanni Di Lorenzo  21'
  • yellowcard Matteo Politano  52'
Champions League
Nov 1, 2017 7.45pm
2
4
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Lorenzo Insigne 21' goal
  • Jorginho 62' goal
  • Dries Mertens 94' yellowcard
  • goal Nicolas Otamendi 34'
  • goal John Stones 48'
  • goal Sergio Aguero 69'
  • yellowcard Nicolas Otamendi 91'
  • goal Raheem Sterling 92'
Champions League
Oct 17, 2017 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Raheem Sterling 9' goal
  • Gabriel Jesus 13' goal
  • Kyle Walker 37' yellowcard
  • Kevin De Bruyne 44' yellowcard
  • Fernandinho 72' yellowcard
  • goal Amadou Diawara 73'
  • yellowcard Raul Albiol 74'
  • yellowcard Christian Maggio 79'