Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16

Aug 8, 2020 at 8pm UK

Camp Nou

Barcelona
3 - 1
Napoli

Lenglet (10'), Messi (23'), Suarez (45+1' pen.)
Suarez (90+2')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Insigne (45+5' pen.)
Zielinski (60')

Reaction

Barcelona captain Lionel Messi celebrates scoring his 700th goal in their match against Atletico Madrid on June 30, 2020

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Aug 10, 22:22

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 65.68%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Napoli had a probability of 15.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 3-1 (7.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.2%), while for a Napoli win it was 1-2 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Napoli
65.68%	18.37%	15.95%

Both teams to score 59.83%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.73%

33.27%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.97%

55.03%

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.51%

9.49%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.16%

31.84%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.1%

33.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.43%

70.57%

Score Analysis

Barcelona 65.68%

Napoli 15.95%

Draw 18.37%

Barcelona	Draw	Napoli
2-1 @ 9.65% 2-0 @ 8.92% 1-0 @ 7.58% 3-1 @ 7.58% 3-0 @ 7% 4-1 @ 4.46% 4-0 @ 4.12% 3-2 @ 4.1% 4-2 @ 2.41% 5-1 @ 2.1% 5-0 @ 1.94% 5-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 4.69% Total : 65.68%	1-1 @ 8.2% 2-2 @ 5.22% 0-0 @ 3.22% 3-3 @ 1.48% Other @ 0.26% Total : 18.37%	1-2 @ 4.43% 0-1 @ 3.48% 0-2 @ 1.88% 2-3 @ 1.88% 1-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.67% Total : 15.95%