Champions League Gameweek 4
Nov 3, 2026 8.00pm
Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 8.00pm
Liverpool 2 - 1 Atletico

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 43.83%. A win for Atletico Madrid has a probability of 34.52% and a draw has a probability of 21.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (6.06%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win is 2-1 (7.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.35%).

Result

Atletico Madrid 34.52% ▼ (-0.05)
Draw 21.65% ▼ (-0.04)
Bayern Munich 43.83% ▲ (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.96% ▲ (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 84% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 16% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 64.46% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 2.5 35.54% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 42.34% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 3.5 57.63% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 4.5 27.76% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 4.5 72.24% ▼ (-0.07)

First Half Winner

Atletico Madrid 26.9% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 35.2% ▼ (-0.01)
Bayern Munich 37.9% ▲ (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Atletico Madrid 44.5% ▲ (+0.03)
No Goal 3.88% ▼ (-0.04)
Bayern Munich 51.62% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 54.38%
Equal 8 10.48%
Under 8 35.14%
Over 9 43.92%
Equal 9 10.45%
Under 9 45.62%
Over 10.5 34.27%
Under 10.5 65.73%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 40.69%
Under 1.5 59.31%
Over 2.5 18.69% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 81.31% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 3.5 7.22% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 92.78% ▼ (-0.02)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5 76.25% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 0.5 23.75% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 1.5 49.36% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 50.64% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 25.9% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 74.1% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 11.89% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 88.11% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Atletico Madrid 34.52%
Draw 21.65%
Bayern Munich 43.82%
Atletico Madrid
2-1 @ 7.79% ▼ (-0.01)
1-0 @ 6.05% ▼ (-0.04)
2-0 @ 4.46% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.69%
3-2 @ 3.18% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 2.53% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 6.82% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 34.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.35% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.95% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 3.88% ▼ (-0.04)
3-3 @ 2.07%
Other @ 0.4% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 21.65%
Bayern Munich
1-2 @ 8.58%
0-1 @ 6.06% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.75% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 4.93% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 3.8% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 3.21%
Other @ 11.49% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 43.82%

Head to Head

Champions League
Dec 1, 2020 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Wanda Metropolitano
  • Joao Felix 26' goal
  • Stefan Savic 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bouna Sarr 43'
  • goal Thomas Muller 86'
Champions League
Oct 21, 2020 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Allianz Arena
  • David Alaba 5' yellowcard
  • Thomas Muller 21' yellowcard
  • Kingsley Coman 28' goal
  • Leon Goretzka 41' goal
  • Corentin Tolisso 66' goal
  • Kingsley Coman 72' goal
  • yellowcard Renan Lodi 43'
  • yellowcard Koke 44'
  • yellowcard Hector Herrera 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Lucas Torreira 90'+2'
Champions League
Dec 6, 2016 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Robert Lewandowski 28' goal
  • yellowcard Gabi 61'
Champions League
Sep 28, 2016 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Saul Niguez 15' yellowcard
  • Yannick Carrasco 35' goal
  • yellowcard Philipp Lahm 25'
  • yellowcard Thiago Alcantara 33'
  • yellowcard Jerome Boateng 40'
  • yellowcard Arturo Vidal 86'
Champions League
May 3, 2016 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Xabi Alonso 31' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 74' goal
  • Javi Martinez 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jose Gimenez 33'
  • goal Antoine Griezmann 54'
Champions League
Apr 27, 2016 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Saul Niguez 11' goal
  • Saul Niguez 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Douglas Costa 40'
  • yellowcard Mehdi Benatia 82'
  • yellowcard Manuel Neuer 82'
  • yellowcard Arturo Vidal 88'