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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 11
Dec 5, 2020 at 12.30pm UK
Turf Moor
Everton logo
Burnley
1 - 1
Everton
Brady (3')
FT(HT: 1-1)

Preview: Burnley vs. Everton - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Everton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Burnley and Everton will both be looking to bounce back from disappointing defeats last time out when they meet at Turf Moor on Saturday lunchtime.

The Clarets were thrashed 5-0 by Manchester City in their most recent outing, while Everton went down 1-0 at home to Leeds United.

Eleven points separate the sides heading into this opening Premier League fixture of the weekend, with the Toffees in eighth and their opponents in the bottom three.


Match preview

Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured in November 2020© Reuters

In what has been a year of uncertainty, there was almost a sense of inevitability about the outcome of Burnley's trip to Man City last weekend.

Riyad Mahrez scored a hat-trick to help inflict a fourth successive 5-0 defeat on Sean Dyche's side at the Etihad Stadium in the most one-sided of games.

Dyche tried something different in terms of tactics, but any momentum built from the previous week's 1-0 home win over Crystal Palace may well have been lost.

That was the Clarets' only win of the campaign so far and they are now seeking consecutive Premier League home victories for the first time since October 2019.

The second win in that sequence came against Everton, making it four wins in six home top-flight meetings with the Toffees.

Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti pictured on November22, 2020© Reuters

Scoring has been a major issue for the home side, with no team netting fewer than their four goals, but Everton are not exactly known for their strong defensive record.

Since shutting out Tottenham Hotspur on the opening weekend, Carlo Ancelotti's charges have conceded in nine Premier League games running - only Sheffield United (13) are on a longer run without a clean sheet.

The Toffees have lost four of their last five games heading into this one, the exception being a tight 3-2 win over Fulham in their most recent away outing.

Going back into last season, though, Everton have won four of their last six matches on their travels. Burnley, by comparison, have four home wins in their last 13 outings, losing four in a row before their win over Palace.

Burnley Premier League form: DLLDWL

Everton Premier League form: DLLLWL


Team News

Burnley's Nick Pope in action against Sheffield United in the Premier League on July 5, 2020© Reuters

Bailey Peacock-Farrell became just the third goalkeeper to concede five or more on his Premier League debut last weekend, but Burnley are hopeful of having Nick Pope back from a head injury.

Phil Bardsley and Josh Brownhill also missed the trip to the Etihad Stadium but are making good progress in their recoveries, while Robbie Brady and Dale Stephens are two other fitness doubts.

Dyche turned to Josh Benson against City and the 20-year-old midfielder may have to fill in again alongside Ashley Westwood if the injuries do not clear up.

As for Everton, they will be without the influential Lucas Digne for a few months, while fellow full-back Seamus Coleman and midfielder Jean-Philippe Gbamin are also on the sidelines.

Ancelotti persisted with a five-man defence against Leeds, but Tom Davies did not look comfortable as a right wing-back and a tactical rethink may be required.

The experienced Italian coach also has a big call to make in the heart of his backline, where Mason Holgate was preferred to Yerry Mina last weekend.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Gudmundsson, Westwood, Benson; McNeil; Rodriguez, Wood

Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Godfrey, Mina, Keane; Davies, Allan, Doucoure, Iwobi; Rodriguez, Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 1-2 Everton

Everton have badly lost their way after a really strong start to the season and have an extremely tough run of games to come after this trip to Turf Moor.

If not quite must win, anything less than three points in Lancashire will be considered a poor result for the Toffees, who have aspirations of challenging for a European spot.

None of the 12 Premier League games between Burnley and Everton has been drawn - the Clarets winning five to the Toffees' seven - and we are going with an away win this weekend.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 54.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 21.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.38%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-0 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.


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Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured in November 2020
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