Burnley welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon for their opening Premier League game of the 2021-22 campaign.
As the lowest survivors from last season, both teams will be keen to improve on their final positions, after the Clarets ended in 17th place while the Seagulls finished one spot above them in 16th.
Match preview
© Reuters
For the sixth successive year, Burnley will be competing in the Premier League and Sean Dyche is hopeful that he will have the resources to steer the club clear of the relegation zone once again.
Aside from an impressive seventh-place finish in 2017-18, the Clarets have spent the majority of their time battling to keep their top-flight status intact and last year was no different.
Burnley endured a disappointing end to the previous campaign – losing seven of their final 10 league games – which resulted in a 17th-place finish, and so Dyche will be keen for his side to hit the ground running this time around.
The Clarets will need to address their home form if they are to have a strong campaign this year. Dyche's men are currently winless in their last 10 league games at Turf Moor – drawing and losing five each – with a 3-2 victory over Aston Villa in January their last success on home soil. Only once in their league history have they had a longer run without a win at Turf Moor, going 11 games between April and November 1979 when they were in the second tier.
Burnley also have a poor record against Saturday's opponents Brighton, having won just one of their last seven home league games against them, a narrow 1-0 Premier League win in December 2018.
After a 17-month absence, the Clarets will welcome the return of home fans this weekend and hope that their support can drive the team on to end their miserable run of form.
Burnley head into their opening fixture after winning five of their six pre-season friendlies, albeit against lesser opposition, with their only defeat against Spanish side Cadiz in their final game last weekend. With the return of a few key players, Dyche is set to name a strong side on Saturday that he will hope can secure all three points against a potential relegation rival.
© Reuters
Entering their fifth consecutive Premier League campaign this season, Brighton & Hove Albion will be looking to steer themselves clear of the drop zone once again, with head coach Graham Potter also hopeful that they can push themselves much further up the table.
The Seagulls are yet to show any real progression in terms of league position, with their highest finish being 15th place in 2017-18 and 2019-20.
Last season, Brighton often failed to string a good run of results together, winning just nine of their 38 league matches and suffering 15 defeats. One positive was that they never dropped into the relegation zone, consistently maintaining a fairly comfortable gap between themselves and the bottom three and eventually finishing 13 points above Fulham in 18th place.
While being praised for their progressive style, Brighton failed to consistently deliver in the final third. Potter's men had an expected goals total of 51.7 in the Premier League last season but scored just 40 goals, meaning they found the net almost 12 times fewer than expected based on the quality of their chances.
With plenty of attacking options at his disposal, including the likes of Neal Maupay, Danny Welbeck, Aaron Connolly and Leandro Trossard, Potter needs to see their form in the final third improve if the club are to enhance their chances of Premier League survival.
Heading into the opening weekend, the Seagulls – who won just one of their three pre-season friendlies – will be hoping for a repeat of their previous two away campaign openers in the top flight, which they won 3-0 against both Newcastle United and Watford.
Brighton are also unbeaten in each of their last four encounters against Burnley, so they can take confidence to Turf Moor on Saturday. With only one of their first eight matches against a team from last season's top six, Potter will fancy his chances of a strong start to the new campaign.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Burnley expect to have key duo Nick Pope and Chris Wood available to start on Saturday. Both came through the match with Cadiz unscathed, with Pope playing his first minutes since undergoing knee surgery in May, while Wood was given the first 45 minutes after featuring for New Zealand at the 2020 Olympics.
Indeed, Wood will be an important player for Dyche if he plays this weekend; the 29-year-old has scored more goals (eight) against Brighton than he has against any other side in his English league career.
Matthew Lowton will also be available after the right-back had to miss the last two pre-season fixtures because of self-isolation rules, following a family member testing positive for coronavirus.
Two players ruled out of their season opener, however, are midfielder Dale Stephens and defender Kevin Long, who are both sidelined with respective ankle and knee injuries which led to the pair undergoing surgery at the end of last term.
Dwight McNeil has been one of Burnley's brightest sparks during pre-season and he is expected to start on the left-wing with Johann Berg Gudmundsson to play on the opposite flank.
As for Brighton, Potter has confirmed that right wing-back Tariq Lamptey (hamstring), striker Danny Welbeck (hamstring) and defender Dan Burn (knee) are all unlikely to feature in the opening game due to injury.
Lamptey has been suffering with his problem since December 2020, while Welbeck and Burn sustained their latest injuries in last month's 3-1 friendly win against Luton Town.
Club captain Lewis Dunk had an operation on his toe over the summer, but after playing in their final warm-up match against Getafe last weekend, he should be in contention to start.
Defender Adam Webster, who recently signed a new contract with the club, is set to join Dunk in the back three alongside Joel Veltman, with Solly March and Pascal Gross likely to operate in wing-back roles.
Twenty-three-year-old Enock Mwepu, who joined the club from RB Salzburg this summer, could be in line to make his debut in midfield alongside Yves Bissouma, while Maupay is expected to lead the line up front.
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Gudmundsson, Westwood, Cork, McNeil; Barnes, Wood
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Webster, Dunk, Veltman; March, Bissouma, Mwepu, Gross; Trossard, Mac Allister; Maupay
We say: Burnley 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion
In recent years, this fixture has often been a cagey encounter with few goals scored; in fact, more than two goals have hit the net in just four of the last 14 meetings.
Another closely-fought contest, between two sides who are set to battle it out for Premier League survival, is expected on Saturday and with little to separate them, a score draw could be on the cards at Turf Moor.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.
