Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VfL Bochum would win this match.