Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 35.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.2%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-0 (8.92%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.