Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.99%) and 0-2 (5.45%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.