After an impressive opening first half to their Ligue 1 campaign, Nice have a chance to extend their unbeaten run on the road to six matches in all competitions when they head to Stade Francis Le Ble on Sunday to face Brest.
The team from the French Riviera are sitting in second after their first 19 encounters, while Les Pirates are eight points behind them in 12th, having failed to win their last two league fixtures of 2021.
Match preview
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Brest head into 2022 looking to get back on track at home following a temporary setback to end 2021, when they were beaten handily by Montpellier HSC (4-0).
Last year may not have ended the way Michel Der Zakarian had hoped, but the former Armenian international has been able to make some strides with this group in his first season on the sidelines.
His side suffered six defeats in their first 19 league matches of 2021-22, three fewer than they had at this point of last season when they avoided a relegation playoff by a single point.
Even though their final home game last year was their worst defeat of the campaign, there is a lot to like about how Brest have performed at Stade Francis Le Ble.
That loss to Montpellier is the only time in their last five games played in all competitions in which they have conceded at home and also their lone loss over that stretch.
They began this year with an impressive showing at the Coupe de France, dominating Bordeaux with a 3-0 win, firing 13 shots on target while allowing only two.
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Nice enjoyed a solid start to their 2021-22 campaign, winning their final two league fixtures in December as they are 11 places higher than they were a season ago at this stage.
Christophe Galtier is making a solid case as to why he deserves to win Manager of the Year in the French league once again, as the man who led Lille to the domestic title a season ago has Les Aiglons on pace for potentially their best finish to a campaign since 2016-17, when they came in third.
In their opening 19 games, they did not always start well, conceding the opening goal 10 times, but they were usually able to pick themselves up and react well, winning four of those encounters.
Galtier has built a solid backline, who can create and build up play from deep in their end with good wing backs, while relying on some tremendous wide play to stretch the field.
Their defensive posture has been exceptionally sharp thus far, as they are tied with PSG for the second-fewest goals conceded this season (17) after allowing 53 in their previous campaign.
This is an organized side that can maintain a compact low or mid-block system which can frustrate opposing attacks, while their high press has created plenty of turnovers.
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Team News
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Midfielder Haris Belkebla will not be available to Brest until at least late January as he is on international duty at the African Cup of Nations with Algeria, Romain Del Castillo is a question mark with a groin injury and Sebastien Cibois continues to recover from an Achilles tendon rupture.
Brest advanced to the Round of 16 of the French Cup with goals from captain Steve Mounie and their leader in assists Romain Faivre, as each of them scored from the penalty spot against Les Girondins, with the other tally coming courtesy of Jeremy Le Douaron.
Favire set up the only Brest goal from Franck Honorat in their previous meeting with Nice last year, but it was too little too late as they fell 2-1, with that strike coming in stoppage time.
Nice could be missing a couple of players for this clash, including Alexis Claude-Maurice, who has a foot injury, while Robson Bambu is dealing with an ankle problem.
In their final league game of 2021, they put together a solid second half, erasing a 1-0 deficit versus Lens, thanks to goals by Mario Lemina and Justin Kluivert, both of which were set up by Pablo Rosario, his first two assists so far in this Ligue 1 campaign.
Twelve different players have found the back of the net so far for Nice, and the last time they faced Brest, they had some unlikely heroes, with Jean-Clair Todibo and Melvin Bard tallying what is to date their only goals so far this season.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Duverne, Herelle, Chardonnet, Pierre-Gabriel; Honorat, Agoume, Faivre, Magnetti; Mounie, Le Douaron
Nice possible starting lineup:
Benitez; Atal, Todibo, Dante, Bard; Boudaoui, Rosario, Lemina, Kluivert; Delort, Gouiri
We say: Brest 1-2 Nice
As good as Brest have been at home this season, Nice are equally strong on the road and do not appear to be intimidated by opposing crowds.
Nice tend to react well despite some slow starts, and they have shown a lot more focus and determination late in matches in this campaign.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for Brest had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nice would win this match.
