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Brentford logo
Premier League | Gameweek 36
May 7, 2022 at 3pm UK
Brentford Community Stadium
Southampton logo

Brentford
3 - 0
Southampton

Jansson (13'), Wissa (14'), Ajer (79')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Diallo (17')

Preview: Brentford vs. Southampton - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Brentford and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides separated by only goal difference in the Premier League table will face off on Saturday when Brentford welcome Southampton to the Brentford Community Stadium.

Both clubs look safe from relegation in 14th and 15th respectively and on 40 points apiece with three games left to play, while victory for either this weekend could lift them up into the top half of the table.


Match preview

Brentford's Vitaly Janelt celebrates scoring their first goal with Bryan Mbeumo and Christian Norgaard on April 2, 2022© Reuters

If you had told Brentford at the start of the season that they would have reached the 40-point mark before the start of May and that they could go into their final three games without the worry of relegation hanging over their heads, they would have snapped it up.

It has been a hugely impressive first season back in the top flight since 1946-47 for the Bees and, while survival is not mathematically secure just yet, it would take a remarkable turnaround in form for a number of teams for their eight-point buffer to the relegation zone to be eradicated now.

Instead, Thomas Frank and his players can afford to be looking up the table; a best finish since 1937-38 already looks secure, but a top-half finish is also still possible.

A number of other clubs are also in the mix for that top-10 finish, but should Brentford win on Saturday - and Aston Villa and Crystal Palace both fail to win their games - then the West London outfit would move up to 10th place.

Frank will have to ensure that an end-of-season malaise does not creep into his side after they saw their good run of form ended on Monday night, losing 3-0 at Manchester United to end a four-game unbeaten streak which included wins over Chelsea, West Ham United and Watford, as well as a draw with Tottenham Hotspur.

Brentford manager Thomas Frank applauds fans after the match on April 10, 2022© Reuters

Indeed, the Bees have won five of their last seven games since the beginning of March and have taken seven points from the last nine available in front of their own fans - as many as they had managed in their previous eight home outings combined.

Brentford have not even conceded in front of their own fans since February, and should they record another clean sheet on Saturday then they would join Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City as the only clubs this season to keep four home shutouts on the bounce.

However, they have also lost eight home games this season - only Watford and Norwich City have lost more - while they have failed to find the back of the net in their last two outings home and away.

It would be harsh to describe defeat away to Man United as a dip in form for Brentford, though, and they certainly come into this match in better form than their opponents Southampton, who have won just one of their last nine Premier League games.

A 1-0 triumph over Arsenal is Southampton's only victory in any competition since March 2, losing seven and drawing two since then, and conceding 25 goals in the process.

Wilfried Zaha's late winner last time out condemned the Saints to a 2-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace and means that Ralph Hasenhuttl has now watched his side throw away a league-high 26 points from winning positions this season.

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl looks dejected on April 9, 2022© Reuters

Without those dropped points, Southampton would sit level on points with third-placed Chelsea, and so improving their ability to hold on to leads must be high on Hasenhuttl's agenda as he begins to look forward to next season.

For now, though, his focus will be solely on Saturday's game and potentially picking up a third straight top-flight win in London - something the club has not achieved since March 1985.

Incidentally, the last of those London wins - against Spurs - was Southampton's last away win anywhere as they have picked up just three points from a possible 15 on the road since February 9.

This will be their first trip to Brentford since meeting in League One in April 2011, but they are unbeaten in their last five away games against the Bees and notably won 4-1 in the reverse fixture in January.

Another victory on Saturday would complete a first league double over Brentford since 1954-55, and more importantly could also see them climb as high as 10th in the table heading into their final two games of the campaign against Liverpool and Leicester City.

Brentford Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Southampton Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L


Team News

Southampton's Tino Livramento goes down after sustaining an injury on April 24, 2022© Reuters

Brentford will be without both Ethan Pinnock and Sergi Canos for this match, although both players are closing in on a return from thigh injuries and could be fit for the Everton clash.

Frank Onyeka and Mathias Jorgensen have both been ruled out for the remainder of the campaign, though, while Saman Ghoddos could join them after suffering a sprained ankle against Tottenham.

Thomas Frank has switched between four and five-man defences in recent weeks, but the latter has generally been reserved for the games against top-six opponents and so he could switch back to four in defence for this one.

Christian Eriksen is again expected to be among the starters, as is striker Ivan Toney as he looks to add to his tally of 12 goals this season.

Southampton will be without Valentino Livramento for the rest of the campaign and possibly the rest of the year after he suffered a serious knee injury against Brighton & Hove Albion in the Saints' last away game.

Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy is the only other injury doubt for Hasenhuttl, though, and he is closing in on a return after featuring for the Under-23s side in midweek.

The likes of Armando Broja, Stuart Armstrong and Mohamed Elyounoussi will be pushing for recalls to the starting lineup after all coming off the bench last time out.

Midfield talisman James Ward-Prowse is almost certain to start, meanwhile, and one more direct goal involvement would see him equal his best-ever return in a Premier League season.

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Ajer, Jansson, Sorensen, Henry; Dasilva, Jensen, Eriksen; Mbeumo, Toney, Wissa

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Forster; Walker-Peters, Salisu, Bednarek, Perraud; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Elyounoussi; Broja, Adams


SM words green background

We say: Brentford 2-1 Southampton

End-of-season encounters when neither club has a great deal to fight for can be particularly unpredictable, but the form book points towards a Brentford win in this one - so long as they can prove that Monday's defeat to Manchester United was merely a blip.

Southampton have been shipping a lot of goals lately, and with the likes of Eriksen and Toney in Brentford's ranks, we believe that could be enough for the hosts to come away with all three points this weekend.



Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Written by
Barney Corkhill

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Game History

How you voted: Brentford vs Southampton

Brentford
67.3%
Draw
22.1%
Southampton
10.6%
217
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Brentford's Christian Eriksen applauds fans after the match on April 10, 2022
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool15113131131836
2Chelsea16104237191834
3Arsenal1686229151430
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest168442119228
5Manchester CityMan City168352823527
6Aston Villa167452425-125
7Bournemouth157352320324
8Fulham166642422224
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton166642625124
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1672736191723
11Brentford167273230223
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle166552321223
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd166462119222
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham155372028-818
15Crystal Palace163761721-416
16Everton153661421-715
17Leicester CityLeicester163582134-1314
18Ipswich TownIpswich162681628-1212
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1623112440-169
20Southampton1612131136-255


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