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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying permutations: Who can reach Qatar?

Sports Mole looks at the latest standings and World Cup qualifying permutations for the South American section ahead of a crucial round of fixtures.

The South American section of World Cup qualifying continues this week, with two automatic places still up for grabs heading into the final two fixtures.

Giants Brazil and Argentina have already booked their places in Qatar, despite each playing a game fewer than every other team in their section, and six other teams still harbour hopes of varying realism of joining them.

Only Paraguay and Venezuela are out of the running completely with two games remaining, leaving plenty at stake during the first round of fixtures this week.

Here, Sports Mole looks at the latest World Cup qualifying permutations for the CONMEBOL section.

Brazil's Raphinha celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters



What does the table look like?

Every team other than Brazil and Argentina have played 16 games and have two remaining. The top four qualify for the World Cup automatically, while fifth place goes into an intercontinental playoff.

1. Brazil (39pts)
2. Argentina (35pts)
3. Ecuador (25pts)
4. Uruguay (22pts)
5. Peru (21pts)
6. Chile (19pts)
7. Colombia (17pts)
8. Bolivia (15pts)
9. Paraguay (13pts)
10. Venezuela (10pts)



What are the upcoming matches?

Uruguay vs. Peru
Colombia vs. Bolivia
Brazil vs. Chile
Paraguay vs. Ecuador
Argentina vs. Venezuela



Who has already qualified?

BRAZIL

Brazil manager Tite on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Five-time World Cup winners Brazil were the first South American side to book their spot at Qatar, doing so in November to extend their record of appearing at every single finals.

The Selecao have won 12 and lost none of their 15 outings so far, boasting a game in hand over every team other than Argentina, whom they lead by four points at the top.

Victory in their next two games - against Chile and Bolivia - would guarantee top spot.

ARGENTINA

Argentina's Angel Di Maria celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Argentina joined their great rivals Brazil in securing qualification just five days later, and they can finish no lower than their current position of second.

Lionel Messi and co are also unbeaten in the current qualifying campaign, winning 10 and drawing five of their 15 outings.

Brazil are still in reach - particularly with the two sides still due to face each other at a date to be confirmed - but with a four-point deficit they will likely need to win both of their upcoming games, against Venezuela and Ecuador.



Who could qualify this week?

ECUADOR

Ecuador's Michael Estrada celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 2, 2022© Reuters

Ecuador are on the verge of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup, with either a draw or a win against Paraguay on Thursday being enough to stamp their ticket.

Ecuador boast a three-point lead over Uruguay and crucially a four-point lead over Peru in fifth, meaning that a victory would give them an unassailable lead over the playoff spot regardless of results elsewhere.

However, the fact that Uruguay and Peru face each other in their next outings means that even a draw would be enough for Ecuador, with at least one of the teams behind them guaranteed to drop points.

URUGUAY

Uruguay's Rodrigo Bentancur celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

It is a huge international break for two-time world champions Uruguay, who have lost six of their 16 matches so far and find themselves in danger of missing out on a place at this year's World Cup.

Matters are still in their own hands, though, and victory over Peru in Thursday's crunch match could be enough to complete the job with a game to spare, should Chile drop points away to Brazil.

However, if Uruguay were to lose to Peru in Montevideo then they would drop out of the automatic qualification spots, and potentially even out of the playoff spots should other results go against them too.



Who else can still qualify?

PERU

Peru players celebrate after the match on January 28, 2022© Reuters

Peru are in must-not-lose territory in terms of automatic qualification hopes, with defeat to Uruguay in Montevideo condemning them to the playoffs at best.

Victory for Peru would see them leapfrog Uruguay into fourth and in pole position to claim the final automatic spot, while a draw would keep them firmly in the mix too heading into their final game against Paraguay.

However, any dropped points in Uruguay would open the door for Chile, who are just two points behind Peru.

CHILE

Chile's Alexis Sanchez celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Chile remain very much in the mix for at least a playoff spot, although with difficult matches against Brazil and Uruguay in their final two games the odds are against them.

Chile are sixth, two points adrift of the playoff spot and three behind the final automatic spot, but they could take advantage of the two teams directly above them both facing each other on Thursday.

Should they pull off a surprise win in Rio de Janeiro then they could find themselves in fifth and just one point off fourth, but their hopes could well depend on that result in Brazil.

COLOMBIA

Colombia's William Tesillo and teammates at half time on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Colombia's hopes of making it to Qatar are hanging by a thread, with four points separating them from the playoff spot and five from Uruguay in fourth.

Defeat for Colombia at home to Bolivia on Thursday would therefore end their chances once and for all, while a draw would only be enough to keep them in contention if Peru lose to Uruguay.

However, should Peru and Chile both lose and Colombia win - all of which seem the most likely results on paper - then Colombia would find themselves one point off the playoff spot heading into their final game against Venezuela.

BOLIVIA

Bolivia's Marc Enoumba celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

Bolivia's hopes are effectively over already, although not quite mathematically so with a playoff spot still theoretically within reach.

The gap to Peru in fifth is six points, though, meaning that they would need to win both of their matches - against Colombia and Brazil - to stand any chance of making it.

Other results would also need to go their way, including Peru losing both of their matches and Chile picking up a maximum of one point from their two games.



Who is already out of the running?

PARAGUAY

Paraguay have only picked up 13 points from their 16 games so far, winning just twice and crucially scoring only nine goals to leave themselves out of contention with two games still to go.

VENEZUELA

Venezuela have won as many games as seventh-placed Colombia, but they have also lost 12 of their 16 outings to ensure that they prop up the rest heading into the final round of fixtures.


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