Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.