Championship playoff contenders Bournemouth and Cardiff City face off on Wednesday evening as the battle for a top-six finish heats up.
Cardiff have won five games in a row to close the gap on stuttering sixth-placed Bournemouth to three points ahead of this huge game at the Vitality Stadium.
Match preview
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Mick McCarthy may not have been the most popular of appointments at Cardiff, but the experienced coach has worked wonders by guiding his side right into the playoff picture.
City are without a defeat in seven matches under McCarthy, following a previous run of five losses in a row that brought an end to Neil Harris's tenure.
Cardiff saw off Preston North End 4-0 last time out for their fifth victory in a row, keeping a clean sheet in three of those matches.
It was one of the Bluebirds' most rounded team performances of the campaign, with Kieffer Moore, Josh Murphy, Marlon Pack and Mark Harris all registering.
The win was made a lot more comfortable thanks to Dillon Phillips's double penalty save at 2-0, denying both Paul Gallagher and Ched Evans in the space of two minutes.
All of a sudden, the Welsh side now find themselves just three points off the playoffs and can move into the top six on Wednesday for the first time this term.
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For that to happen they need to beat Bournemouth by two goals, and on the basis of both sides' recent form that is certainly not out of the question.
The Cherries have placed interim boss Jonathan Woodgate in charge until the end of the campaign, at which point Thierry Henry is favourite to take over for the long term.
Woodgate's men lost 2-1 at Queens Park Rangers on Saturday and have now won just two of their last nine league matches, albeit coming in their last two home games.
However, not since February 2018 have the South Coast side won three successive home league matches.
As for Cardiff, they are looking to make it four away wins on the spin in the league for the first time since a run of five in February 2013.
Bournemouth Championship form: LLWDWL
Bournemouth form (all competitions): LWWDWL
Cardiff City Championship form: DWWWWW
Team News
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Arnaut Danjuma remains a fitness doubt for Bournemouth, while Steve Cook, Jack Stacey and Dominic Solanke have all been ruled out.
Woodgate still has plenty of options in attack, however, with Sam Surridge and David Brooks pushing for recalls to the starting lineup.
Shane Long got off the mark with his first goal for the club last time out, but the Southampton loanee is at risk of dropping out of the XI here.
As for Cardiff, McCarthy remains without long-term injury absentees Lee Tomlin, Isaac Vassell and Jordi Osei-Tutu.
January signing Jonny Williams was named among the subs against Preston and may make his first appearance on Wednesday, though that will likely be from the bench.
Moore, Murphy and Harry Wilson all impressed against North End at the weekend and will surely retain their places in the side.
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Begovic; Smith, Mepham, Carter-Vickers, Kelly; Lerma, Cook, Billing; Brooks, Surridge, Stanislas
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Flint, Nelson, Morrison; Ng, Pack, Vaulks, Bennett; Wilson, Moore, Murphy
We say: Bournemouth 1-1 Cardiff City
Cardiff are the Championship's form team, having taken 15 points from the last 15 on offer, whereas Bournemouth have won just twice in their last nine matches.
However, the Cherries have won five of their last six home league matches against Cardiff - losing the other 3-1 in 2002 - and we can see them halting City's winning run here.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (10.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
