Copa Sudamericana Gameweek 3
Apr 28, 2026 11.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio Nilton Santos
  • Mateo Ponte 15' goal
  • Álvaro Montoro 62' goal
  • Santiago Rodríguez 64' yellowcard
  • Chris Ramos  64' yellowcard
  • 64' yellowcard
  • 64' yellowcard
  • Joaquín Correa 65' yellowcard
  • 65' yellowcard
  • Marçal 67' yellowcard
  • Chris Ramos  67' yellowcard
  • Newton  74' yellowcard
  • Newton  77' goal
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Rivas 56'
  • yellowcard Alan Mercado 56'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Cristaldo  64'
  • yellowcard Heber Leaños 71'
  • yellowcard Rafael Lutkowski 71'

Botafogo vs Independiente Petrolero - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Botafogo

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
Apr 15, 2026 11.00pm
Racing 2 - 3 Botafogo

Independiente Petrolero

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
Apr 15, 2026 11.00pm
Caracas 1 - 0 Independiente Petrolero

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 69.99%. A draw had a probability of 18.92% and a win for Independiente Petrolero had a probability of 11.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.32%) , while for a Independiente Petrolero win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.

Result

Botafogo 69.99%
Draw 18.92% (+0.05)
Independiente Petrolero 11.08% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.29% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.57% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 23.43% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 54.62% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 45.38% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 33.47% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 66.53% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 23.61% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 76.39% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Botafogo 51.74%
Draw 36.27%
Independiente Petrolero 11.99%

Team To Score First

Botafogo 72.25% (-0.02)
No Goal 6.63% (+0.04)
Independiente Petrolero 21.12% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 59.25%
Equal 8 11.95%
Under 8 28.8%
Over 9 46.93%
Equal 9 12.32%
Under 9 40.75%
Over 10.5 35.37%
Under 10.5 64.63%

Botafogo Goals

Over 1.5 62.2%
Under 1.5 37.8%
Over 2.5 37.01% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 62.99% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 19.19% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 80.81% (+0.02)

Independiente Petrolero Goals

Over 0.5 41.04% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 58.96% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 13.28% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 86.72% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 2.87% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 97.13% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 0.59%
Under 3.5 99.41%

Score analysis

Botafogo 69.99%
Draw 18.92%
Independiente Petrolero 11.09%
Botafogo
1-0 @ 12.48% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 12.06% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 9.13%
3-0 @ 8.66%
3-1 @ 5.99% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.54%
Other @ 19.13% (-0.02)
Total : 69.99%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.32% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.63% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 3.28% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.06% (+0.01)
Total : 18.92%
Independiente Petrolero
0-1 @ 4.32% (+0.02)
1-2 @ 3.03% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 1.56%
Other @ 0.53% (-0.02)
Total : 11.09%