Borussia Dortmund welcome VfL Bochum to Signal Iduna Park in the Bundesliga on Saturday hoping to bounce back from the disappointment of last weekend's Der Klassiker defeat.
The loss at the Allianz Arena ended Dortmund's pursuit of Bayern Munich's title, whilst the visitors slipped to another defeat to leave their survival unconfirmed for another week.
Match preview
© Reuters
Had Dortmund managed an unlikely victory away at Bayern last Saturday, then their title hopes would still have remained very slim - three points would have moved BVB to within six of the leaders with three games to play - but having their failed challenge confirmed at the hands of their rivals will have hurt.
If anything, the 3-1 scoreline, and the balance of play, summed up the obvious difference in class that still separates the two sides, and has done for 10 consecutive Bundesliga titles for the Bavarians now.
Serge Gnabry and Robert Lewandowski netted inside the opening 45 minutes to all but kill the encounter off with Marco Rose's side looking toothless in attack, before Emre Can's penalty shortly after the interval provided a glimmer of hope for the visiting side.
However, Dortmund failed to kick on from that point and Jamal Musiala's late goal condemned them to an eighth successive defeat to Bayern in all competitions.
Looking ahead to Saturday's encounter, the hosts appear to have very little left to play for on paper, with no participation in either European competition or the DFB-Pokal, rounding off a disappointing campaign for Rose and his team.
With eight points separating Dortmund from Bayer Leverkusen in third place ahead of matchday 32 at the weekend, there remains the slim possibility of a drop down the table in the final few weeks of the campaign, but victory over Bochum on Saturday would confirm Dortmund's second-place finish for the 2021-22 season.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Bochum failed to confirm their Bundesliga survival when they hosted Augsburg in a relegation battle last time out.
Failing to find the back of the net for a third successive outing, Thomas Reis's side fell to a 2-0 defeat on home soil to condemn them to a fourth defeat in their last six games.
However, thanks to defeats for Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld elsewhere on matchday 31, Bochum were fortunate to maintain their eight-point gap over the former in the relegation playoff spot, and the 10-point advantage over the latter in the automatic relegation zone.
Therefore, although Die Unabsteigbaren have avoided an automatic return to the 2.Bundesliga, there remains the extremely slim possibility of them falling into the playoff place should they fail to pick up more than a point from their remaining three fixtures.
The dependence of fellow strugglers picking up victories in all three of the final matchdays means that Bochum are all but safe to plan for back-to-back seasons in Germany's top flight, but Reis will be keen to ensure they turn around their end-of-season slump in order to enter the summer on a high note.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Dortmund's list of absentees remains a lengthy one heading into the final few weeks of the campaign, with first-choice goalkeeper Gregor Kobel heading up that list.
Marwin Hitz will continue to deputise in goal as a result, whilst Can's fifth yellow card of the season last time out means he will sit out through a one-match suspension.
Mahmoud Dahoud, Mats Hummels, Donyell Malen, Thomas Meunier, Mateu Morey, Giovanni Reyna, Marcel Schmelzer and Steffen Tigges will join them on the sidelines to leave Rose with few options to choose from.
Thorgan Hazard also remains a slight doubt due to the back problem that ruled him out of the trip to the Allianz Arena, whilst Axel Witsel continues to struggle with an illness that might see him miss out on the opportunity to deputise for Can in the centre of midfield.
As for the visitors, defender Kostas Stafylidis will serve the second of his three-game ban at Dortmund on Saturday following his recent red card.
Fellow defender Danilo Soares was fit to start the defeat to Augsburg last time out despite struggling with a knock, but the availability of the Brazilian means Reis has no other concerns to contend with.
Eduard Lowen, Jurgen Locadia and Sebastian Polter are likely options that the Bochum boss will turn to should he look to rotate his starting lineup in a bid to arrest his side's dip in form.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Wolf, Akanji, Pongracic, Guerreiro; Witsel, Bellingham; Brandt, Reus, Reinier; Haaland
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Gamboa, Bella-Kotchap, Leitsch, Soares; Lowen, Losilla, Rexhbecaj; Zoller, Locadia, Asano
We say: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 VfL Bochum
The outcome of this encounter significantly depends on the character of Dortmund to come out and bounce back from the disappointment of missing out on the title as a result of last weekend's defeat.
Should they return to a decent performance level, they should have no problem seeing off a struggling Bochum side, although they are likely to have opportunities to find the back of the net on the counter attack against an under-performing BVB back line.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 70.47%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 13.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.28%) and 3-1 (8.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.85%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 1-2 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
