Borussia Dortmund host Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with both sides looking to bounce back from defeat last weekend.
Dortmund's hopes of finishing in the top four in the table were damaged by a 2-1 defeat to Freiburg, while Hoffenheim lost 3-1 at home to the in-form Eintracht Frankfurt.
Match preview
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Pressure is mounting on Dortmund now, with Edin Terzic's side sitting four points outside of the Champions League qualification positions after last weekend's defeat to Freiburg.
BVB have not failed to qualify for Europe's elite competition since finishing seventh in Jurgen Klopp's last season in charge in 2014-15, with the financial implications - especially during a global pandemic - of doing so potentially disastrous for a club which routinely has its best players poached even while competing in the Champions League.
Dortmund actually started brightly at Freiburg, with Emre Can smashing the bar from 30 yards before Erling Braut Haaland was denied by Florian Muller at point-blank range after a scintillating counter-attack, but ultimately Marvin Hitz was found wanting in goal.
The hosts clearly sensed the Swiss goalkeeper's slow reflexes, with Jeong Woo-yeong and Jonathan Schmid both scoring from distance. Youssoufa Moukoko replaced the visibly-enraged Marco Reus, pulling his side back into the game with his second Bundesliga goal, before unfortunately slipping when striking the ball in injury time as Freiburg held on for a famous win.
Terzic must ensure his players get back to winning ways against a vulnerable Hoffenheim side, but will need to be aware of the threat their forthcoming opponents pose in transition after losing 4-0 at home to them on the last day of last season.
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Andrej Kramaric scored all four goals in that crazy game, and Hoffenheim will surely need similar heroics from their talismanic attacker on Saturday if they are to gain a positive result.
Due to a combination of injuries and loss of form, Sebastian Hoeness's team are simply not the same one which finished sixth last season, currently languishing in 12th place on 22 points from 20 games after last weekend's defeat to Frankfurt.
Adi Hutter's side were simply too strong for their opponents, with Filip Kostic producing a masterful performance. Amin Younes found the onrushing winger in acres of space early on, with the Serbian clinically firing across goal to open the scoring. Ihlas Bebou was brought on as a half-time substitute as Hoeness looked to find a way back into the game, with the forward showing his pace by beating two Frankfurt defenders on the break before calmly slotting the ball into the bottom corner to level proceedings.
However, Frankfurt always looked like they had an extra gear, with Evan N'Dicka's powerful and precise header from only just inside the Hoffenheim penalty area pulling them back ahead, before a scintillating counter-attack wrapped up the three points. Daichi Kamada found Kostic on the left flank with a gorgeously-drilled long pass, before Kostic weaved his way up the pitch before finding Andre Silva at the back post in yet another textbook combination between the pair.
With only the Bundesliga's bottom two sides possessing a worse defensive record than Hoffenheim so far this season, Hoeness must find a way of tightening up on Saturday, otherwise Dortmund will have a field day even in their current slump of form.
Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form: WDLLWL
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): DLLWWL
Hoffenheim Bundesliga form: LDWWLL
Team News
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Dortmund will remain without Roman Burki until the end of the month due to a shoulder injury, with Terzic left with little choice but to pick Hitz's confidence up from off of the floor.
Thomas Meunier, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Axel Witsel, Thorgan Hazard and Marcel Schmelzer remain sidelined, too, with Moukoko likely to come into the starting XI after making a superb impact from the bench against Freiburg.
Hoffenheim, meanwhile, continue to be without the services of several players, with Havard Nordtveit, Ryan Sessegnon, Benjamin Hubner, Ermin Bicakcic, Kevin Akpoguma, Dennis Geiger and Kostas Stafylidis all out of the trip to Dortmund.
Like Moukoko, Bebou may have earned himself a start having scored after coming on as a substitute against Frankfurt, while Florian Grillitsch may be considered to add some class to the midfield.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Morey, Hummels, Akanji, Guerreiro; Delaney, Bellingham; Sancho, Reyna; Moukoko, Haaland
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Posch, Vogt, Rudy; Kaderabek, Grillitsch, Samassekou, Baumgartner, John; Bebou, Kramaric
We say: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Hoffenheim
With Hoffenheim's defence continuing to be porous, we can envisage Dortmund getting back to winning ways on Saturday.
The likes of Haaland and Jadon Sancho should have too much pace and precision in transition for Hoeness's side to cope with, though Kramaric and Bebou are sure to pose a few problems of their own, too.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.34%) and 3-1 (7.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 1-2 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
