Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.