Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.