Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitebsk win with a probability of 38.23%. A draw had a probability of 31.06% and a win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 30.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitebsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.43%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.25%) , while for a BATE Borisov win it was 0-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.