Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Minsk win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 29.57% and a draw had a probability of 28.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Minsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest BATE Borisov win was 0-1 (8.74%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.