Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 29.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 2-1 (7.92%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 0-1 (10.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.