Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belshina win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belshina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 0-1 (9.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.