Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 30.25% and a draw had a probability of 29.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 (10.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.