Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 17.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.