Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 46.45%. A win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.