Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 57.24%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Naftan had a probability of 17.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.12%) and 1-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Naftan win it was 1-0 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.