Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 49.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 22.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.46%) and 1-2 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 1-0 (9.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.