Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win with a probability of 48.76%. A win for Naftan had a probability of 27.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.52%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Naftan win was 1-0 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.