Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Smorgon win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Smorgon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 0-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Smorgon in this match.