Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Smorgon win with a probability of 37.39%. A win for Dnepr Mogilev had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Smorgon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.29%). The likeliest Dnepr Mogilev win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.