Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Dnepr Mogilev had a probability of 31.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Dnepr Mogilev win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal Dzerzhinsk would win this match.