Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 61.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 16.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.86%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 1-0 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.