Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 57.36%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 16.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.15%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.25%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torpedo-BelAZ would win this match.