Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gomel win with a probability of 42.96%. A win for Naftan had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gomel win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Naftan win was 0-1 (10.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gomel would win this match.