Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dnepr Mogilev win with a probability of 37.41%. A win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 35.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dnepr Mogilev win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The likeliest BATE Borisov win was 1-0 (9.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.