Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Minsk win with a probability of 37.25%. A win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Minsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest BATE Borisov win was 0-1 (11.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.